Specific Support Study on the Geothermal Power Plants

CONTEXT

The Africa Energy Ministers, during the AU Specialised Technical Committee meeting on Infrastructure (Transport, Energy and Tourism) held in Nouakchott and Cairo in 2018 and 2019 respectively, tasked the African Union Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD) to lead the development of a Continental Power System (Transmission and Generation) Masterplan (CMP).

To ensure that AUDA-NEPAD kick-started the process towards developing the CMP, the European Union Technical Assistance Facility (EU TAF) agreed to support a Baseline Study covering the generation and transmission systems through its ongoing support to the African Union Commission (AUC), under assignment EU TAF CW 235. This Study assumed that each power pool independently planned its generation and transmission investments, based on its own regional policy objectives.

Furthermore, the Baseline study developed model specifications for the regional generation and transmission systems. Part of the recommendations of the Baseline Study in 2020 was the development and inclusion of 12 specific support studies (SSS) in phase II of the CMP including this SSS on Geothermal Power Plants.

OBJECTIVES

The overall objective of this assignment is to provide the necessary inputs for the development of a robust and accurate CMP model that takes into consideration the role of geothermal power generation in the continent’s energy mix, in line with the road map for the AfSEM.

The model which will be used for the development of the CMP requires specific technical and economic inputs for the different technologies which will be considered as well as detailed information on the available technical potential, ideally at the level of each country. The potential of each technology should be assessed along with datasets necessary for modelling, such as dispatching, seasonal variability and the predictability of future generation.

Furthermore, the formulation of the policy scenarios will require several informed assumptions on (i) the effect of funding options and mechanisms for the projects to be considered in CMP, and the (ii) regulatory and institutional issues which could affect the deployment of technologies, the market development and the level of electricity trading.

DESCRIPTION

The most interesting cases out of the identified potential projects for geothermal power plants across the continent need to be selected and used as input to the modelling of the CMP or for sensitivity studies of the CMP model. More specifically, this assignment will:

• Review ongoing Geothermal Initiatives on the continent,
• Assess the geographical distribution of geothermal power potential on the continent,
• Assess the existing installed geothermal power generation capacity as well as other potential investments, by region and available sources of financing for the medium term (2030) to long term (2040 to 2050),
• Identify scenarios for increasing geothermal power penetration in Africa’s generation mix and role in Africa electricity supply decarbonisation,
• Evaluate the development of costs of geothermal power technologies in the medium term (2030) to long term (2040 and 2050), associated with ongoing technological and efficiency improvements,
• Provide recommendations for overcoming identified barriers for geothermal power as input into regional masterplans (CMP, AfSEM and AfCFTA).

This assignment will also identify the risks and both technical and non-technological barriers to the geothermal power deployment and the development processes, in order to shape an outlook of the potential feasible geothermal power production until 2040 and 2050.

SUMMARY OF SERVICES

• Project Management
• Identification of Technical potential and Technologic pathways and opportunities
• Estimation of technical potential for Geothermal Power Plants
• Large-scale projects and infrastructure developments
• Technical and Non-technical bottlenecks and issues